ASEAN and China struggle to finalize South China Sea Code of Conduct amid escalating maritime tensions
The South China Sea remains one of the world's most contested waters, with over three trillion dollars in annual maritime trade passing through it. China claims almost the entire region based on its nine-dash line, but a 2016 international tribunal ruled against China's territorial claims. The Philippines, Vietnam, and other ASEAN nations have overlapping claims. In 2026, China and the Philippines experienced multiple confrontations at Scarborough Shoal and other disputed areas, involving water cannons and ship collisions. ASEAN and China have been negotiating a Code of Conduct since 2002 to manage these tensions, with a 2026 deadline that now appears unlikely to be met. The Philippines chairs ASEAN this year and has pushed for progress, but internal divisions among member states, competing claims, and broader US-China rivalry complicate negotiations. Both Beijing and Manila have shown willingness to engage through diplomatic channels, though incidents at sea continue to escalate.
Key facts
- Approximately 3.5 trillion dollars in annual maritime trade passes through the South China Sea
- A 2016 international tribunal ruled against China's nine-dash line territorial claims in favor of the Philippines
- China and the Philippines clashed three times in July 2026 at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal
- ASEAN and China have been negotiating a Code of Conduct since 2002, initially targeting completion by 2026
- Vietnam has completed island reclamation work totaling 4.3 square miles since 2021; China has responded with its own island building
- The Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026 but faces internal member divisions preventing unified regional response
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Left-leaning outlets highlight China's unilateral militarization, artificial island construction, and alleged use of coercive tactics like water cannons against neighboring states. They emphasize China's disregard for the 2016 international tribunal ruling and frame China's actions as aggressive imperial expansion that undermines international law and the rights of smaller nations.
Right-leaning coverage: Right-leaning outlets and those with China-aligned perspectives argue that the Philippines and US are manufacturing confrontations to militarize the region and contain China. They characterize Philippine actions as provocative and blame external powers, particularly the United States, for destabilizing the South China Sea through military alliances and freedom of navigation operations.
Limits of this briefing
Chinese state media and official sources characterize the disputes differently, dismissing the 2016 tribunal as illegitimate and denying responsibility for escalation. Some analysis on economic interdependence between claimant states and China's clean energy supply chains may limit confrontational options.
Sources
- Chatham House: With the Philippines as ASEAN chair, a South China Sea agreement is unlikely to be concluded in 2026 Centre
- East Asia Forum: Drifting through dispute in the South China Sea Centre
- Radio Free Asia: ASEAN, China unlikely to finalize South China Sea Code of Conduct at upcoming summit Centre
- South China Morning Post: South China Sea expert warns 2026 code of conduct is 'simply not achievable' Centre
- World Socialist Web Site: As ASEAN meets, manufactured confrontations in the South China Sea Left