ASEAN and China struggle to agree on South China Sea conduct code
Tensions continue in the South China Sea as ASEAN nations and China work toward a legally binding Code of Conduct that remains elusive after more than two decades of negotiations. Multiple confrontations between Chinese and Philippine forces have escalated this year, including clashes at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal involving coast guard vessels. Approximately 40 percent of global maritime trade passes through these disputed waters, valued at around 3.5 trillion dollars annually. China claims sovereignty over nearly the entire South China Sea through its nine-dash line, a claim rejected by a 2016 international tribunal ruling. Several Southeast Asian countries—Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei—have competing maritime claims. ASEAN's Philippines-led chairmanship in 2026 aimed to accelerate negotiations on the Code of Conduct, but deepening US-China rivalry, disagreements over the code's scope and enforcement mechanisms, and internal ASEAN divisions have prevented substantive progress. Dialogue channels between Manila and Beijing have reopened, yet military posturing and diplomatic rhetoric continue to escalate.
Key facts
- Approximately 40 percent of global maritime trade passes through the South China Sea, valued at roughly 3.5 trillion dollars annually
- A 2016 international tribunal ruled China's nine-dash line claim has no legal basis under international law
- China and the Philippines have experienced at least six significant incidents and clashes in recent months as of October 2026
- ASEAN has been negotiating a Code of Conduct with China since 2013, building on a non-binding 2002 declaration
- The Philippines holds the ASEAN chairmanship in 2026 and sought to accelerate Code of Conduct negotiations
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Left-leaning outlets like Radio Free Asia highlight China's use of grey-zone tactics, militarization efforts, and alleged disregard for the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling. They emphasize how China's historical pattern of undermining agreements limits the viability of new codes, and stress the strategic importance of supporting ASEAN claimants' adherence to international law to ensure regional stability and freedom of navigation.
Right-leaning coverage: Right-leaning perspectives from Chinese state media (Global Times) frame Philippine actions as provocative harassment of China's legitimate scientific research and normal coast guard operations, and argue that Manila is being manipulated by the US to destabilize the region. They portray China's military readiness and patrols as defensive responses to external interference rather than aggressive posturing.
Limits of this briefing
Coverage varies significantly by outlet, with pro-China and pro-ASEAN claimants presenting fundamentally different interpretations of causality and intent. Western perspectives emphasizing international law coexist with Chinese framing that portrays arbitration decisions as illegitimate; broader context on Vietnam's competing claims and other claimants' perspectives received less recent coverage in search results.
Sources
- Radio Free Asia: ASEAN, China unlikely to finalize South China Sea Code of Conduct at upcoming summit Left
- East Asia Forum: Drifting through dispute in the South China Sea Centre
- The Defense Post: South China Sea Rivalry Looms Over ASEAN Meeting Centre
- Global Times: No bullying the small, no blackmail by the small: China's South China Sea rule Right
- Asia Times: The South China Sea consensus no ASEAN chair can move Centre