ASEAN, China struggle to finalize South China Sea Code of Conduct
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China continue negotiations on a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, a heavily contested waterway where territorial claims overlap with exclusive economic zones of several Southeast Asian nations. These negotiations, underway since 2002 with formal talks since 2018, aim to establish rules managing tensions in waters valued at approximately three point five trillion dollars in annual maritime trade. However, major obstacles remain, including disagreements over the agreement's legal binding status, geographic scope, and how external powers should be addressed. Recent months have seen escalating maritime incidents, with China and the Philippines experiencing multiple confrontations at disputed shoals including Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal. As the Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026, officials express optimism about concluding negotiations by year-end, though analysts remain skeptical given the fundamental disagreements between parties. The underlying issue involves China's nine-dash line claim, which a 2016 international tribunal found inconsistent with international maritime law, though China rejected the ruling.
Key facts
- China's 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling against its nine-dash line claim was rejected by Beijing, who continue asserting control over disputed features
- South China Sea maritime trade volume is estimated at 3.5 trillion dollars annually, making regional stability a global economic concern
- Code of Conduct negotiations have been ongoing since 2002, with formal talks since 2018, originally aimed for completion by July 2026
- China's maritime militia presence in the Spratly Islands increased by 14 percent between 2024 and 2026
- Primary claimant states Philippines and Vietnam seek legally binding agreements, while China opposes binding enforcement mechanisms
- July 2026 saw three separate China-Philippines confrontations at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal within one week
- Nearly 70 percent of Code of Conduct content was reportedly agreed upon by end of 2025, but most contentious issues remain unresolved
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Progressive and critical analyses highlight China's assertive militarization strategy in the region, describing its actions as systematic administrative control through infrastructure development, coast guard deployments, and 'gray-zone' tactics that effectively alter the status quo without direct military confrontation. Sources emphasize the geopolitical threat to regional stability, the need for stronger international legal enforcement mechanisms, and solidarity with affected Southeast Asian nations seeking binding international agreements.
Right-leaning coverage: Right-leaning perspectives emphasize strategic competition with China, US-led alliance strengthening, and the risks of insufficient deterrence against Chinese assertiveness. These sources stress the importance of US military support for the Philippines, freedom of navigation operations, and the potential for escalation if China perceives weakness. Some sources warn of a closing window for the US and allies to maintain Indo-Pacific security before China achieves dominance.
Limits of this briefing
Most Western and Southeast Asian sources emphasize Beijing's assertiveness while sources from China or aligned outlets present alternative framings of responsibility. Coverage of recent confrontations in October 2026 involving Chinese ambassador statements suggests ongoing diplomatic tensions that could affect negotiations.
Sources
- Chatham House: With the Philippines as ASEAN chair, a South China Sea agreement is unlikely to be concluded in 2026 Centre
- East Asia Forum: Drifting through dispute in the South China Sea Centre
- Radio Free Asia: ASEAN, China unlikely to finalize South China Sea Code of Conduct at upcoming summit Right
- Council on Foreign Relations: Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea Centre
- Asia Times: The South China Sea consensus no ASEAN chair can move Left