Nebius Stock Surges 28% on Q2 Revenue Beat, Michael Burry Remains Skeptical
Nebius Group reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of 582.3 million dollars, up 454 percent year-over-year and beating analyst estimates of 572.75 million. The AI cloud infrastructure company's stock soared 28 percent on August 12 following the results. AI cloud revenue, which makes up 98 percent of total revenue, surged 514 percent. The company closed four major deals with average contract values exceeding one billion dollars each and reaffirmed its full-year guidance of 3 to 3.4 billion in revenue. Adjusted EBITDA reached 236 million dollars, a dramatic improvement from a 21 million dollar loss a year earlier. However, the company posted a 190.4 million dollar net loss due to heavy capital spending of 5.7 billion dollars on data center expansion. Prominent investor Michael Burry disclosed a short position in Nebius, calling it a sign of the boom's peak, citing concerns about GPU depreciation and capital intensity.
Key facts
- Nebius Q2 2026 revenue reached $582.3 million, up 454% year-over-year, beating consensus estimate of $572.75 million
- AI cloud revenue surged 514% to $575 million, representing 98% of total group revenue
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $236.2 million versus a loss of $21 million in Q2 2025
- Company closed four major AI cloud deals with average contract values exceeding $1 billion each
- Michael Burry disclosed short position at $247 and added to it on August 12, calling Nebius 'what the top of a boom looks like'
- Nebius stock soared from $193.23 on August 11 to $259 on August 12, a 34% gain intraday
- Capital expenditure reached $5.7 billion in Q2, resulting in a $190.4 million net loss despite revenue beat
- Company reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion
How different outlets framed it
Right-leaning coverage: Right-leaning or contrarian sources amplify Burry's bearish thesis about the boom reaching its peak, emphasizing concerns about GPU depreciation, unsustainable capital expenditure, and risks that AI spending could decelerate. Some sources highlight the Yandex heritage and geopolitical baggage as a persistent concern despite the company's complete divestiture of Russian assets.
Limits of this briefing
Coverage focused primarily on U.S. financial media outlets; limited perspectives from European regulatory or geopolitical analysts regarding Nebius's Amsterdam headquarters and post-Yandex restructuring. The Michael Burry narrative dominated press coverage, potentially crowding out other analytical frameworks.
Sources
- Seeking Alpha: Nebius surges after Q2 beat; plans to continue investing in capex Centre
- 24/7 Wall Street: Michael Burry Is Short Nebius and Palantir. Both Are Now Soaring and His Short Thesis Looks Broken. Right
- Yahoo Finance / Reuters: Nebius Q2 2026 earnings beat revenue estimates on AI cloud demand Centre
- Stocks Down Under: Why Is Nebius (NBIS) Stock Soaring 28%? NBIS Earnings Spark an AI Cloud Rally Centre
- Blockonomi: Michael Burry Intensifies Nebius (NBIS) Short Position Despite 34% Stock Rally on Earnings Beat Right