ASEAN Pursues South China Sea Code of Conduct Amid Escalating Tensions
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China are negotiating a Code of Conduct to manage maritime disputes in the South China Sea, a region claimed in whole or part by multiple countries. The Philippines holds the 2026 ASEAN chairmanship and hopes to finalize this agreement by year-end. However, talks remain difficult due to disagreements over whether the code will be legally binding, its geographic scope, and enforcement mechanisms. Meanwhile, tensions continue at sea: China Coast Guard vessels have repeatedly used water cannons, rammed Philippine ships, and blocked resupply missions to disputed reefs. A 2016 international tribunal ruled many of China's territorial claims invalid. The South China Sea contains critical shipping routes handling about 24 percent of global maritime trade and significant oil and gas reserves. Whether negotiations succeed depends on balancing competing national interests among ASEAN members while managing day-to-day confrontations.
Key facts
- Philippines holds 2026 ASEAN chairmanship and aims to conclude Code of Conduct by year-end after multiple missed deadlines since 2018
- 2016 international arbitration tribunal ruled China's nine-dash line claims covering 80% of South China Sea invalid
- South China Sea carries approximately 24% of global maritime trade worth about $7.4 trillion annually
- In 2025, China Coast Guard doubled presence at Scarborough Shoal and nearly tripled patrols around Sabina Shoal
- Core dispute obstacles include legal binding status, geographic scope, enforcement mechanisms, and role of external military powers
- September 2026: Philippine Defense Secretary accused China of coercion and bullying at Seoul Defense Dialogue after receiving note from Chinese delegation
- Second Thomas Shoal has become major flashpoint with Chinese vessels repeatedly ramming and using water cannons against Philippine supply boats
- Malaysia reported 70% of Code of Conduct content agreed upon by end of 2025
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Left-leaning outlets focus on China's aggressive militarization of artificial islands, construction of military bases, and pattern of using coercive tactics against weaker Southeast Asian neighbors. They emphasize China's rejection of the 2016 international arbitration ruling and highlight the need for enforcement mechanisms in any agreement, warning that Beijing has historically ignored multilateral agreements.
Right-leaning coverage: Right-leaning sources emphasize U.S. alliance commitments to the Philippines through the Mutual Defense Treaty, stress China's violation of previous pledges not to militarize the region, and advocate for stronger freedom of navigation operations and military cooperation among allies to deter Chinese expansion and protect democratic interests in the region.
Limits of this briefing
Coverage reflects publicly available diplomatic statements and news reporting; internal negotiations and China's internal deliberations remain opaque. Most analysis focuses on Philippines-China tensions; perspectives from Vietnam, Malaysia, and other ASEAN claimants receive less attention in available sources.
Sources
- East Asia Forum: Drifting through dispute in the South China Sea Centre
- Chatham House: With the Philippines as ASEAN chair, a South China Sea agreement is unlikely to be concluded in 2026 Centre
- CNBC: China-Philippines tensions simmer after Beijing rebukes Manila over Seoul clash Centre
- George W. Bush Presidential Center: China continues to militarize the South China Sea – here's what should be done Right
- South China Morning Post: South China Sea: Asean, Beijing need recalibrated approach to reach binding code of conduct Left