ASEAN struggles to finalize South China Sea code amid escalating tensions
ASEAN and China are racing to complete a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea by the end of 2026, but negotiations remain deadlocked over key issues like legal enforceability and China's contested territorial claims. The region, which handles an estimated 3.5 trillion dollars in maritime trade annually, has seen escalating military confrontations, particularly between China and the Philippines. A 2016 international tribunal ruled that China's sweeping 'nine-dash line' claims have no legal basis under international law, a decision China rejected and continues to ignore. China employs gray-zone tactics including coast guard patrols, artificial island construction, and maritime militia operations to assert control without triggering conventional military conflict. Vietnam and the Philippines have responded by militarizing their own positions. Meanwhile, ASEAN members remain divided—some favor a binding agreement with enforcement mechanisms, while others, concerned about Chinese economic retaliation and hedging between Beijing and Washington, resist stronger commitments. Whether a meaningful code can be achieved before year-end remains uncertain.
Key facts
- South China Sea handles approximately 3.5 trillion dollars in maritime trade annually
- 2016 Hague tribunal ruled China's nine-dash line claim has no legal basis under international law
- Malaysia reported in 2025 that COC negotiations had reached approximately 70 percent agreement
- China and Philippines clashed three times in a single week in July 2026 at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal
- China's maritime militia presence in Spratly Islands increased 14 percent since 2024 according to IISS
- Vietnam accelerated military infrastructure on 21 features in the Spratly Islands in 2026
- An estimated 1,500 US naval transits occur annually in the South China Sea
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Left-leaning outlets like Radio Free Asia and Al Jazeera highlight China's systematic use of coercive tactics, water cannon harassment of Filipino vessels, and legal violations under international maritime law. They emphasize the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling's importance and criticize China for ignoring the decision, while noting that ASEAN's consensus-based approach leaves it vulnerable to Chinese pressure on weaker members.
Right-leaning coverage: Right-leaning and strategic sources like CSIS, RAND, and the US State Department emphasize China's hegemonic ambitions, gray-zone operations designed to avoid triggering military responses, and China's defiance of international law as a challenge to the rules-based order. They stress the importance of freedom of navigation, US alliance commitments, and the need for coordinated pushback against what they frame as Beijing's incremental territorial conquest.
Limits of this briefing
Reports differ on the feasibility of finalizing a binding Code of Conduct and its enforceability mechanisms. China's perspective on the disputes and its legal framework arguments are primarily presented through third-party coverage rather than direct Chinese government statements; additional official Chinese position documentation would strengthen balance. Internal ASEAN divisions mean individual claimant states may hold positions not fully captured in collective statements.
Sources
- The Diplomat: South China Sea Code of Conduct: A Deal Is Not Enough Centre
- East Asia Forum: Drifting through dispute in the South China Sea Centre
- Radio Free Asia: ASEAN, China unlikely to finalize South China Sea Code of Conduct at upcoming summit Left
- Council on Foreign Relations: Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea Centre
- RAND Corporation: Understanding and Countering China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations Right