Record $1.9 billion wagered on 2026 US midterms in prediction markets
Americans wagered nearly 1.9 billion dollars on the 2026 midterm elections through prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, marking record trading activity for a midterm cycle. The majority—about 1.3 billion—traded on Kalshi, with roughly 600 million on Polymarket. These decentralized betting markets allow traders to buy contracts that pay out based on election outcomes. As of election day, prediction markets priced in roughly a 94 to 98 percent chance of Democrats winning the House and around 75 to 80 percent odds of taking the Senate. The trading surge represents a major test for prediction markets, which gained prominence by correctly forecasting Trump's 2024 presidential win, but have also suffered notable misses in recent races. Regulators are monitoring the markets for insider trading, and both supporters and critics across party lines have raised concerns about how they might influence election integrity and public confidence.
Key facts
- Nearly $1.9 billion wagered on 2026 midterms across Kalshi and Polymarket as of early November 2026
- Kalshi accounted for approximately $1.3 billion, Polymarket for roughly $600 million
- Prediction markets gave Democrats 94-98 percent odds of winning the House and 75-80 percent odds of winning the Senate
- Trading volume increased dramatically from $4 million wagered on 2022 midterms to nearly $2 billion in 2026
- Polymarket reported 98.4 percent accuracy rate when comparing market predictions to actual midterm outcomes
- Kalshi suspended at least six candidates in 2026 for improperly betting on their own races
- 69 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of Republicans opposed election betting in Reuters/Ipsos poll
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Progressive critics worry prediction markets undermine democratic trust and enable insider trading by candidates and campaign insiders. They emphasize bipartisan public opposition—69 percent of Democrats opposed betting on elections in recent polls—and point to potential for market manipulation to distort voter perceptions and emboldened candidates to challenge results when markets diverge from outcomes. Democratic lawmakers have proposed legislation including the Prediction Market Security and Integrity Act to establish safeguards.
Right-leaning coverage: Supporters highlight prediction markets' track record of accuracy over traditional polls, particularly Trump's 2024 victory prediction. They argue markets harness collective intelligence and are superior to media-biased polling. They defend free-market principles behind these platforms and note the Trump administration's regulatory support has boosted industry growth. Some conservatives worry the markets' current Democratic lean may reflect temporary market sentiment rather than fundamental credibility.
Limits of this briefing
Coverage reflects recent articles published around election day November 2026, capturing immediate market reactions and predictions rather than final results. Some sources represent aggregators of data rather than original reporting. Left-leaning perspectives were less abundant in mainstream coverage compared to centrist and right-leaning outlets.
Sources
- Washington Post: Nearly $1.9 billion traded on midterms in booming prediction markets Centre
- NPR: Rise of prediction markets Centre
- CNN: More than $1.4 billion has been traded on prediction markets for the 2026 midterms Centre
- Council on Foreign Relations: Betting on Democracy Centre
- Sportico: Kalshi and Polymarket Risk Donald Trump's Fury With 2026 Election Odds Left