ASEAN, China struggle over South China Sea code as tensions rise
The South China Sea remains one of Asia's most contentious flashpoints, with China claiming nearly 90 percent of the waters through its nine-dash line while the Philippines, Vietnam, and other ASEAN members assert overlapping claims. A 2016 international tribunal rejected China's historical basis for these claims, ruling they lack legal foundation under international law. Despite decades of negotiations, ASEAN and China have struggled to finalize a legally binding Code of Conduct to manage disputes. This year, with the Philippines chairing ASEAN, hopes rose for progress, but internal divisions among ASEAN members and recent military confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels have complicated talks. The waters carry enormous strategic importance: approximately 40 percent of global maritime trade passes through the region, and the seabed may contain significant oil and gas reserves. Meanwhile, the United States has increased military presence and freedom of navigation operations, citing concerns over Chinese militarization, creating a complex triangular dynamic between Beijing, regional claimants, and Washington.
Key facts
- China claims approximately 90 percent of the South China Sea through its nine-dash line, rejected by a 2016 international tribunal ruling
- An estimated 40 percent of global maritime trade passes through the South China Sea, worth roughly $3.5-5.3 trillion annually
- A decade-long ASEAN-China Code of Conduct remains unfinalized despite 2026 target date for completion
- Recent 2026 incidents include China Coast Guard confrontations with Philippine vessels near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal
- ASEAN remains internally divided on the dispute, with claimant states like Philippines and Vietnam seeking stronger action while non-claimants avoid antagonizing China
- The Philippines holds a delapidated ship, Sierra Madre, grounded at Second Thomas Shoal as a military outpost
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Left-leaning outlets emphasize China's aggressive militarization, construction of artificial islands, and use of coercion against smaller Southeast Asian nations. They frame the dispute as a challenge to international law and a threat to freedom of navigation, often linking it to broader concerns about democratic values and the rule-based international order. These sources tend to highlight U.S. alliance commitments and support for Philippine sovereignty.
Right-leaning coverage: Right-leaning perspectives stress the need for strong U.S. military presence and alliance strengthening to counter Chinese expansion, framing the dispute as part of a broader great power competition. They emphasize China's violation of international law and the importance of deterrence through military capability and resolve, often linking South China Sea stability to broader Indo-Pacific security strategy.
Limits of this briefing
Coverage tends to emphasize either Western/allied perspectives or Chinese state viewpoints, with limited direct voices from smaller claimant states like Malaysia, Brunei, and Vietnam. The role of Vietnam's recent coast guard pact with the Philippines and Malaysia's perspective as both a claimant and non-confrontational player receive less attention.
Sources
- East Asia Forum: Drifting through dispute in the South China Sea Centre
- CSIS: The Latest on Southeast Asia: South China Sea Updates Centre
- Council on Foreign Relations: Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea Centre
- U.S. Department of State: China's Military Aggression in the Indo-Pacific Region Right
- CGTN (China Global Television Network): Explainer: Why China's South China Sea claims are legitimate Right