Apollo economist finds AI delivers zero financial payoff to most corporations
Apollo Global Management's chief economist Torsten Slok released research on October 24 showing that artificial intelligence has not yet generated measurable financial returns for most large U.S. companies. Analyzing the S&P 493 — the S&P 500 excluding seven major tech firms like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia — Slok found profit margins and revenue per worker remain flat across non-tech corporations despite massive AI investments. Multiple studies confirm this pattern: only 56 percent of CEOs report no revenue increase or cost reduction from AI, while 72 percent of large firms formally measure AI returns but fewer than 7 percent have established concrete ROI. Some analysts warn a correction may be coming if corporations can't translate spending into profits. However, executives remain committed to AI investment, with 94 percent planning to continue even without immediate returns. The gap between hype and results has renewed concerns about an AI bubble.
Key facts
- Apollo's Torsten Slok analyzed S&P 493 (S&P 500 minus Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) and found flat revenue per worker and profit margins with no evidence AI is boosting productivity
- 56 percent of CEOs surveyed by PwC reported neither higher revenue nor lower costs from AI in the past year
- Only 7 percent of leaders in KPMG's mid-2026 survey said they had established ROI on AI
- Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon expects a lot of capital deployed for AI will not deliver returns
- Gartner estimated over 3.5 trillion dollars of AI infrastructure spending could be at risk of impairment by 2030 if revenue fails to justify it
- Average payback period for AI use cases is 2 to 4 years, compared to 7 to 12 months for other technology investments
- 97 percent of companies report less than significant ROI from AI, with 53 percent reporting only 1-5 percent returns
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Left-leaning outlets highlight how AI investments are concentrating wealth among tech giants while most workers see no productivity benefit. Some emphasize that companies are cutting jobs and treating AI as a cost center rather than a growth engine, raising questions about whose interests are served by rapid AI deployment without proven returns. This framing suggests AI adoption may be another wealth inequality issue masked by corporate optimism.
Right-leaning coverage: Right-leaning and skeptical voices emphasize the AI bubble risk and overinvestment concerns. They cite warnings from leading CEOs, hedge fund managers, and economists that billions are being wasted with poor returns. The focus is on capital misallocation, the danger of irrational exuberance reminiscent of the dot-com era, and questioning whether promised productivity gains will ever materialize at current spending levels.
Limits of this briefing
Most sources measure AI ROI narrowly using corporate financial metrics and lag indicators. Some studies show productivity gains exist in specific sectors like finance and healthcare but are difficult to monetize broadly. The research captures a moment in time as AI adoption accelerates; future returns may eventually materialize. Defense and military applications show more measurable value but represent a small portion of overall corporate AI spending.
Sources
- TechCrunch: AI delivers 'zero financial payoff' to most companies, Apollo economist says Centre
- Fortune: AI's boost to the U.S. economy is nearing its peak, Goldman says Centre
- World Economic Forum: The AI productivity trap: Why speed doesn't equal ROI Centre
- Yahoo Finance: Top economist says AI just hasn't delivered on the productivity hype Centre
- Built In: Is There an AI Bubble? Right