ASEAN, China Struggle to Finalize South China Sea Code of Conduct
Tensions in the South China Sea remain high as ASEAN and China work toward a binding Code of Conduct to manage disputes. The Philippines, which chairs ASEAN this year, hoped to conclude negotiations by 2026, but internal disagreements and rival territorial claims make progress difficult. China and five Southeast Asian nations claim overlapping stakes in the strategic waterway, through which 3.5 trillion dollars in maritime trade annually passes. Key flashpoints include Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands, where confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels have intensified. While both sides have shown some diplomatic signals—resuming coast guard talks and joint development discussions—obstacles remain substantial. ASEAN members have competing interests and internal divisions, complicating a unified regional response. The United States, Japan, and Australia have increased military presence, adding to tensions. Analysts say a comprehensive code is unlikely to be finalized this year, though incremental progress may occur. The dispute centers on competing historical and legal claims, with the 2016 international arbitration ruling against China's nine-dash line claims remaining contested by Beijing.
Key facts
- South China Sea carries approximately 3.5 trillion dollars in annual maritime trade
- A 2016 international arbitration ruling invalidated China's nine-dash line claim, but China does not recognize the decision
- ASEAN and China have negotiated a Code of Conduct since 2013, with a non-binding Declaration signed in 2002
- China claims sovereignty over Pratas, Paracel, and Spratly Islands; Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan also assert overlapping claims
- Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026; Chinese Defence Minister skipped recent ASEAN Defence Summit amid tensions
- Recent incidents include Chinese coast guard vessels blocking Filipino fishing boats near Scarborough Shoal and confrontations at Second Thomas Shoal
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Left-leaning outlets and academic sources emphasize the destabilizing effects of militarization and China's aggressive assertiveness, particularly highlighting increased coast guard deployments, island-building, and the risk of armed conflict. They underscore the need for ASEAN unity, international law enforcement, and concern that China's maritime militia activities and military expansion create regional insecurity and undermine smaller nations' sovereignty.
Right-leaning coverage: Right-leaning perspectives, primarily from US-aligned security analysts, emphasize China's strategic ambitions to dominate the region and undermine US influence. They stress the importance of strengthening US-ASEAN defense partnerships, highlight concerns about China's military build-up, and argue that deterrence and Western engagement are essential to preventing Chinese hegemony and protecting freedom of navigation.
Limits of this briefing
Sources represent mostly Western and regional think tanks, academic institutions, and centrist media; fewer direct statements from Beijing's official media or Chinese state perspectives are included. The analysis reflects reporting from November 2026 and may not capture ongoing diplomatic developments.
Sources
- East Asia Forum: Drifting through dispute in the South China Sea Centre
- Radio Free Asia: ASEAN, China unlikely to finalize South China Sea Code of Conduct at upcoming summit Centre
- Asia Times: The South China Sea consensus no ASEAN chair can move Centre
- Crisis Group: South China Sea Left
- Malay Mail: Enough of the war of words? Philippines urges its own officials to cool China rhetoric ahead of Asean summit Centre