ASEAN-China South China Sea tensions escalate amid stalled Code of Conduct talks
Tensions in the South China Sea have intensified significantly in 2026, with China and ASEAN claimants — particularly the Philippines and Vietnam — locked in escalating confrontations over maritime claims. In September, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro publicly rebuffed China's rejection of a 2016 international tribunal ruling that invalidated Beijing's expansive territorial claims. Multiple recent incidents involving Chinese coast guard vessels deploying water cannons against Philippine and Vietnamese boats have heightened concerns. Meanwhile, efforts to finalize an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct, originally targeted for completion in 2026, have stalled due to disagreements over legal binding authority and China's refusal to accept international arbitration. The dispute remains complicated by internal ASEAN divisions, overlapping territorial claims, and deepening U.S.-led military partnerships with Philippines and Vietnam, which Beijing views as internationalization of what it considers a regional matter.
Key facts
- In September 2026, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro publicly challenged a diplomatic note from China's military attaché at the Seoul Defense Dialogue, accusing Beijing of coercion and bullying over South China Sea claims.
- A 2016 international tribunal ruling rejected China's nine-dash line claim as lacking legal basis; China has not accepted the ruling and continues to reinforce its maritime presence in disputed areas.
- Chinese Coast Guard vessels nearly tripled patrols at Sabina Shoal and doubled presence at Scarborough Shoal in 2025, with multiple reported incidents of water cannons used against Philippine and Vietnamese fishing vessels.
- The Philippines, as 2026 ASEAN Chair, pushed for a legally binding Code of Conduct completion by July 2026, but negotiations remain deadlocked over binding authority and restrictions on military activities.
- ASEAN unity remains fragmented, with some members prioritizing economic relations with China while others push for firmer sovereignty stances, limiting the bloc's diplomatic leverage.
- China and Philippines clashed three times in a single week in July 2026 at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, prompting joint U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime drills.
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Left-leaning outlets highlight China's aggressive gray-zone tactics, coercive behavior, and violation of international law as major security threats. They emphasize the 2016 arbitration ruling's legitimacy and frame Western military partnerships with Philippines and Vietnam as justified defensive measures against Beijing's expansion. Regional stability and rule-based international order are presented as primary concerns.
Right-leaning coverage: Right-leaning outlets frame China as deliberately ignoring international rulings and using bullying tactics to enforce illegitimate claims. They portray the Philippines as a courageous small nation standing firm against coercion, stress the importance of U.S. security commitments and military presence, and argue that Western partners must actively support ASEAN claimants to counter Beijing's expansionism.
Limits of this briefing
Chinese state media and official government sources present a fundamentally different narrative emphasizing historical rights and restraint; these perspectives are underrepresented in Western-facing English sources. Additionally, internal ASEAN divisions are significant but often overshadowed by Philippines-China confrontations in available reporting.
Sources
- Washington Times: War of words between China and Philippines over South China Sea claims Right
- Breitbart: China-Philippine Feud over South China Sea Escalates Right
- East Asia Forum: Drifting through dispute in the South China Sea Centre
- CNBC: China-Philippines tensions simmer after Beijing rebukes Manila over Seoul clash Centre
- CGTN (China Global Television Network): Explainer: Why China's claims on South China Sea are legitimate Left