SpaceX Gets 14 Buy Ratings; One Analyst Issues Hold Rating
When SpaceX's post-IPO quiet period ended on July 7th, nearly all Wall Street analysts issued buy ratings on the stock. Fourteen of nineteen analysts initiated coverage with buy or strong-buy recommendations, with price targets ranging from $131 to $800 and an average around $225. However, MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu stood out as the rare holdout, assigning a neutral rating and a $131 price target, implying potential downside of about 18 percent from recent trading levels. Zhu cited concerns about the company's lofty two-trillion-dollar valuation, questioning whether traditional financial models can support it. She also expressed skepticism about some of SpaceX's ambitious projections, including its addressable market estimates and plans for orbital data centers. Despite her reservations, MoffettNathanson acknowledged SpaceX's strong competitive advantages in launch services and recognized the company's potential long-term value. The analyst noted that regulatory scrutiny poses a bigger long-term risk than execution challenges. Wall Street's overall bullish consensus centers on SpaceX's leadership in reusable rockets, growing Starlink satellite internet business, and emerging AI infrastructure opportunities.
Key facts
- MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu assigned a neutral rating with a $131 price target, the only major analyst below current trading levels
- Of 19 analysts, 14 issued buy or strong-buy ratings with average price target of $225, reflecting 40% upside
- SpaceX is unprofitable with negative earnings of $2.94 per share over the past twelve months
- Raymond James issued the highest price target of $800, while Morningstar assigned a $62-63 sell rating
- SpaceX has a $2 trillion market capitalization despite being the 200th largest U.S. company by revenue
- Zhu questioned SpaceX's projected $30 trillion total addressable market as absurd and unrealistic
Limits of this briefing
Most coverage comes from investment banks that underwritten the IPO, which may create bias toward bullish ratings. Limited independent research from non-underwriting firms available. Long-term growth depends entirely on execution of unproven technologies like fully reusable Starship and orbital data centers.
Sources
- Business Insider: A SpaceX holdout: We spoke to a rare analyst who doesn't rate the stock a buy Centre
- CNBC: Only one SpaceX analyst out of all the bulls Tuesday is calling for the stock to drop. Here's why Centre
- Morningstar: Why We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued Centre
- Bloomberg: SpaceX Wins Early Buy Ratings From Wall Street After IPO Debut Centre
- The Motley Fool: 6 Wall Street Analysts Have Issued Price Targets on SpaceX Centre