China and ASEAN Struggle to Finalize South China Sea Code by 2026
Tensions in the South China Sea intensified in 2026 as China and ASEAN worked toward finalizing a Code of Conduct to manage disputes. China's sweeping maritime claims overlap with those of four ASEAN members: the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. A 2016 international tribunal ruled most of China's claims invalid under international law, but Beijing rejects this ruling. This year, China and the Philippines clashed multiple times at disputed features like Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, with both nations trading accusations about provocations. Meanwhile, Vietnam strengthened military infrastructure in the Spratly Islands and the Philippines deepened defense partnerships with the US and Japan. Though ASEAN and China completed a third reading of a Code of Conduct draft, major disagreements persist over its legal binding status and enforcement mechanisms. Experts assess that a finalized agreement remains unlikely by the 2026 deadline due to fundamental strategic divides.
Key facts
- China and the Philippines clashed three times in a single week in July 2026 at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal
- A 2016 international tribunal ruled China's sweeping South China Sea claims invalid under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea
- ASEAN and China completed the third and final reading of a Code of Conduct draft in February 2025 but major disagreements remain unresolved
- The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei all have overlapping maritime claims with China in the South China Sea
- China's Coast Guard more than doubled patrols at Scarborough Shoal and nearly tripled activities at other disputed features in 2025
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Progressive outlets highlight China's aggressive militarization, coast guard escalations, and the destabilizing impact of its expansionism on regional stability and freedom of navigation. They emphasize the 2016 tribunal ruling as authoritative international law and stress that smaller nations deserve protection through binding enforcement mechanisms and US strategic partnerships.
Right-leaning coverage: Conservative voices express concern about China's territorial expansion without military confrontation, comparing it to Russian tactics in Crimea. They argue the US must maintain forward presence and military exercises to deter Chinese assertiveness, and support the Philippines and Vietnam as frontline allies resisting Beijing's coercive pressure.
Limits of this briefing
Most sources are from neutral think tanks and Western media; Chinese state media narratives emphasizing China's historical claims and restraint are underrepresented in mainstream analysis. The perspectives of smaller ASEAN members like Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia receive less coverage than those of the Philippines and Vietnam.
Sources
- Council on Foreign Relations: Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea Centre
- East Asia Forum: Drifting Through Dispute in the South China Sea Centre
- The Diplomat: Philippines, Vietnam Upgrade Diplomatic Partnership Amid Maritime Tensions With China Centre
- Voice of America: ASEAN Aims to Conclude South China Sea Code of Conduct by 2026 Centre
- Congressional Research Service (US Congress): China Primer: South China Sea Disputes Right