Musk Warns SpaceX Short Sellers Face Low Survival Odds Amid Stock Decline
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk warned short sellers on Monday that firms maintaining significant short positions in his company face very low survival probability. This comes as bearish bets against SpaceX have surged to 32 percent of the publicly tradable float, worth approximately 25 billion dollars, up from just 5 to 7 percent a month ago. The stock has fallen roughly 40 percent from its post-IPO peak of over 200 dollars, though it rallied slightly on Tuesday following Musk's warning. Short sellers are betting against the company due to valuation concerns, with SpaceX trading at over 80 times sales at peak. The aerospace and AI company is scheduled to release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company on August 4th, which could prove decisive for both long and short positions.
Key facts
- SpaceX shares are down approximately 40 percent from their post-IPO peak of over 200 dollars
- Short interest has surged to 32 percent of SpaceX's public float, representing 206 million shares and approximately 25 billion dollars in bearish bets
- Short interest was just 5 to 7 percent of the float approximately one month ago
- SpaceX went public at 135 dollars per share in June 2026 in what was described as the largest IPO in history
- SpaceX will release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company on August 4, 2026
- SpaceX had net losses of approximately 5 billion dollars in 2025
- Stock borrowing rates for SpaceX range from 15 to 50 percent annualized
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Critics note Musk's warning carries credibility concerns given his history of making similar unfulfilled predictions about Tesla short sellers. Analysts question whether SpaceX's lofty valuation—with market-cap-to-sales ratios reaching meme-stock levels—can be justified by current fundamentals, with the company having lost nearly 5 billion dollars last year. Some emphasize that Musk's public statements targeting short sellers, while effective in rallying retail investors, may lack substantive evidence supporting his claims about SpaceX's long-term profitability.
Right-leaning coverage: Conservative and business-focused outlets emphasize Musk's conviction in SpaceX's long-term vision, including ambitious plans for Starship cost reductions and potential trillion-dollar space economy opportunities. Right-leaning analysis tends to favor Musk's narrative that short sellers underestimate his ability to execute transformational goals, and frames short selling as betting against innovation and American technological leadership. Sources highlight that if SpaceX achieves its development goals, the company's upside could be enormous, making current bets against it fundamentally misguided despite recent stock weakness.
Limits of this briefing
Coverage comes primarily from financial and business media, with limited input from independent research firms or academic analysis of SpaceX's fundamental value. No major Wall Street bank has published research supporting Musk's $100 trillion valuation claim, and most analysis focuses on near-term catalyst events rather than long-term structural business fundamentals.
Sources
- CNBC: Bets against SpaceX grow to 32% of float as Elon Musk warns short sellers won't survive Centre
- Motley Fool: Elon Musk Says the Short Sellers Betting Against SpaceX Have a 'Very Low' Survival Probability Centre
- Teslarati: Elon Musk sends first warning to SpaceX short sellers Right
- IndMoney: Elon Musk Warns SpaceX Stock Short Sellers: Can Musk's $100 Trillion SPCX Bet Work? Left
- Invezz: Elon Musk has a message for SpaceX short sellers: find out more Centre