ASEAN-China South China Sea Code of Conduct talks stall despite ongoing tensions
ASEAN and China have been negotiating a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea since 2002, with negotiations formally opening in 2018. The goal was to conclude by the end of 2026 with the Philippines chairing ASEAN. However, progress has stalled due to internal disagreements among ASEAN members with competing claims, and escalating maritime confrontations between China and the Philippines. The South China Sea accounts for roughly 40 percent of global maritime trade and three and a half trillion dollars in annual commerce. Meanwhile, the region experiences repeated clashes involving coast guards and fishing vessels. China claims nearly the entire waterway through its nine-dash line, which an international tribunal ruled in 2016 had no legal basis. Negotiations remain fraught as the Philippines attempts to balance tough maritime incidents with diplomatic engagement, while other ASEAN members pursue hedging strategies. Experts say a complete agreement is unlikely by year-end.
Key facts
- The South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations have been ongoing since 2002, with formal talks beginning in 2018.
- Maritime trade volume through the South China Sea is approximately 3.5 trillion dollars annually.
- An international tribunal ruled in 2016 that China's nine-dash line claim has no legal basis under international law.
- Maritime confrontations between China and the Philippines occurred in July 2026 during the ASEAN Foreign Ministers summit.
- The Philippines' foreign ministry urged government officials in November 2026 to reduce public statements on China to maintain diplomatic unity.
- Multiple ASEAN claimants have competing and overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines.
- China controls four military outposts in the South China Sea with 3,050-meter runways.
How different outlets framed it
Left-leaning coverage: Left-leaning outlets frame Philippine confrontations with China as manufactured conflicts engineered by the US to militarize Southeast Asia. They argue that clashes coinciding with ASEAN summits reveal a deliberate strategy by Manila acting on behalf of US geopolitical interests, rather than genuine sovereignty disputes.
Right-leaning coverage: Right-leaning sources emphasize China's assertiveness, military buildup with four major airstrips in the South China Sea, and strategic threats to global trade and energy security. They highlight the Philippines' role as a US ally and the necessity of strong US naval presence to counter Chinese maritime hegemony and protect freedom of navigation.
Limits of this briefing
Most recent coverage focuses on Philippines-China tensions rather than ASEAN-wide perspectives; Vietnam and Malaysia's diplomatic positions receive limited attention in available sources. Chinese government statements are reported secondhand through news outlets rather than primary sources.
Sources
- Chatham House: With the Philippines as ASEAN chair, a South China Sea agreement is unlikely to be concluded in 2026 Centre
- East Asia Forum: Drifting through dispute in the South China Sea Centre
- Radio Free Asia: ASEAN, China unlikely to finalize South China Sea Code of Conduct at upcoming summit Centre
- World Socialist Web Site: As ASEAN meets, manufactured confrontations in the South China Sea Left
- South China Morning Post: South China Sea expert warns 2026 code of conduct is simply not achievable Centre